The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission results appear to confirm the unraveling of a regime that has ruled this southern African country since independence from Britain three decades ago, in recent years overseeing the collapse of the economy and accused of stifling democracy.

The official results gave the opposition Movement for Democratic Change 105 seats to 93 for Mugabe's ZANU-PF in the 210-seat House of Assembly. One seat went to an independent. That means that even if ZANU-PF wins all the remaining seats, it will not have the 106 seats needed for a majority. Seven of Mugabe's Cabinet ministers have lost their seats, according to official results.

The opposition had 41 of the 120 seats in the old, smaller assembly.

At a news conference earlier Wednesday, Movement for Democratic Change general secretary Tendai Biti said party leader Morgan Tsvangirai won 50.3% of the vote in the presidential race held alongside parliamentary balloting Saturday, compared to 43.8% for Mugabe.

"We maintain that we have won the presidential election outright without the need for a run-off," Biti said.

The state Herald newspaper on Wednesday predicted a runoff in the first official admission that Zimbabwe's autocratic leader of 28 years has failed to win re-election. A candidate needs 50% plus one vote to win outright. A runoff would have to be held within 21 days of the first round.

The opposition said it tallied individual polling station totals posted outside the stations across the country. The figures Biti himself gave at the news conference for votes cast and those garnered by the candidates did not back up his contention that his candidate won 50.3% of the vote. Biti said 2,382,243 votes were cast, Tsvangirai received 1,171,079 — about 49% — and Mugabe 1,043,349 — just under 44%. Contacted by the Associated Press soon after the news conference, Biti could not immediately explain the discrepancy.

Biti said the opposition would take part in a runoff if one were ordered — and that it expected to do even better in a two-way race. Independent candidate Simba Makoni, a former Mugabe supporter, was believed to have siphoned off votes from both the opposition and the ruling party.

ZANU-PF rejected the opposition's presidential victory claim, saying that it was being "irresponsible" and "mischievous."

"They have got to be very careful with their activities," Deputy Information Minister Bright Matonga told the British Broadcasting Corp. "They think they can provoke ZANU-PF, and the police and the army."

The government had previously warned that premature announcement of election results by the Movement for Democratic Change would be tantamount to a coup attempt.

The slow pace of official election results had led to speculation Mugabe loyalists were trying to buy time to rig results, even as people close to the electoral commission and the opposition reported secret negotiations to allow Mugabe to exit gracefully.

There were fears of rising tensions as people stayed away from work to await results.

Paramilitary police stepped up patrols in Harare and Bulawayo, the second city, and checked vehicles at roadblocks leading to the capital. Police ordered stores selling alcohol and beer halls to shut early Tuesday night. The opposition has most of its support in urban centers.

Archbishop Desmond Tutu of South Africa, a Nobel peace laureate, said Wednesday he feared violence, "given the brutality with which the authorities have in the past reacted."

The Zimbabwe Election Support Network, a coalition of 38 civil society organizations, said its random representative sample of results posted at polling stations showed Tsvangirai won just over 49% of the vote and Mugabe 42%. The posting of results on the doors of the country's 9,000 polling stations — part of an agreement negotiated by South African President Thabo Mbeki — could make rigging more difficult.

The official parliamentary results were likely to bolster optimism in the opposition camp. In Washington Wednesday, U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said they showed "there is a vote for change." The U.S. has been among Mugabe's sharpest critics.

Asked if the U.S. was encouraging Mugabe to step aside, McCormack said, "Let's have the next step be the electoral results be put forward."

Britain's Foreign Secretary David Miliband, speaking to British lawmakers in London Wednesday, hailed Tsvangirai's behavior as "statesmanlike," but stopped short of backing opposition claims of victory. Britain has long critical of Mugabe, and Miliband said he did not want to hand Mugabe's party propaganda points by endorsing a candidate and was not going to pre-empt official results.

"The delay in announcing the (official) outcome must be seen as a deliberate and calculated tactic," Miliband added.

At independence, Mugabe was hailed for his policies of racial reconciliation and development that brought education and health to millions who had been denied those services under colonial rule. Zimbabwe's economy thrived on exports of food, minerals and tobacco.

A descent began when Mugabe ordered the often-violent seizures of white-owned commercial farms turned over to blacks, mainly relatives, friends and cronies who allowed cultivated fields to be taken over by weeds.

Today, a third of the population depends on imported food handouts. Another third has fled the country and 80% is jobless. Life expectancy has fallen from 60 to 35 years and shortages of food, medicine, water, electricity and fuel are chronic.

Enlarge By Alexander Joe, AFP/Getty Images Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, flanked by its vice president Thokozani Khupe, addresses a press conference in Harare on Tuesday. Tsvangirai, close to becoming Zimbabwe's second president, has had to endure a treason trial, assaults by the security services and a major split within his own party during his campaign.

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